India’s telecom and pay-TV services revenue is forecast to increase a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% from $46.3 billion in 2024 to $61.9 billion in 2029, driven by revenue contributions from mobile data and fixed broadband segments, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s India Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report reveals that the mobile voice service revenue in the country will decline over the forecast period, owing to the growing consumer preference towards OTT/internet-based communication services, unlimited voice minutes with mobile service plans offered by operators, and the subsequent drop in the voice service average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.
Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 10.6% between 2024 and 2029, driven by the continued growth in smartphone and mobile internet subscriptions, especially on 4G/5G networks and increasing consumption of mobile data services, including tiered 5G packages and bundled content, and most importantly introduction of higher-ARPU premium plans.
Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “4G will remain the leading mobile technology in terms of subscriptions until 2027. 5G subscriptions will then surpass 4G and go on to account for 59.4% share of the total mobile subscriptions in 2029 driven by ongoing 5G network expansions by mobile operators.”
Vodafone Idea, the latest operator to launch 5G services in the country, is carrying out 5G rollout across multiple cities in its 17 priority circles. Unlimited 5G data plans offered by telcos will further support growth in 5G adoption.
In the fixed communication services segment, fixed voice service revenue will decline over 2024-29 due to steady drop in fixed voice ARPU, with operators offering unlimited fixed telephony with their broadband plans. Fixed broadband service revenue, on the other hand, will show continued growth, supported by the rising demand for high-speed internet and increasing fixed broadband subscriptions, especially on fiber and fixed wireless access (FWA) access lines.
Mahananda adds: “Strong demand for higher-speed broadband connectivity and the ongoing efforts to expand and modernize fiber-optic network infrastructure across the country will support growth of FTTH/B service revenues over the forecast period. Growth in the FWA lines over the forecast period will be driven by the operators’ efforts to popularize the services, especially with the introduction of 5G FWA services by Reliance Jio (Jio AirFiber) and Bharti Airtel (Xstream AirFiber) in 2023 and their ongoing service expansions across the nation to deliver high-capacity home and business broadband especially targeting areas with limited fiber coverage.”
Pay-TV service revenue will decline over the forecast period, due to the continued drop across cable TV and DTH subscriptions with the growing user preference for OTT video services, and the subsequent decline in aggregate pay-TV ARPU.
Mahananda concludes: “Reliance Jio will lead the mobile services market in terms of subscriptions through 2029, given its extensive 4G network coverage, and 5G network developments and roll outs across the country to cater to the rising demand for high-speed services. It will also maintain its leadership in fixed broadband segment through 2029, driven by its strong position in the fiber segment and strong focus on the countrywide expansion of the JioFiber network.”
For more information, visit www.globaldata.com.
